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Government 1-0 Coup Enthusiasts

Por Redação

14 de outubro de 2015 : 23h31

Daily analysis of Brazilian political scenario – October 13th

By Miguel do Rosario, Editor of Cafezinho

(Translation by Eduardo Pagnoncelli)

Brazilian political history has hardly ever been so suspenseful as it currently seems to be.

A constitutionally based ruling taken by Brazil’s Supreme Court judge Teori Zavascki has frozen the opposition’s impeachment efforts, especially the attempts from Lower House president, Eduardo Cunha. This decision was a great “goal” scored by the government’s “team”, with an injunction sought by federal deputy Wadih Damous of the Workers’ Party (PT). 

The “game’s” situation is still clear for everyone to see. On the Lower House website Mr. Cunha stated that will keep trying new maneuvers to take the president down, even though she has been elected by 54 million voters.

This connection between the impeachment plans and Eduardo Cunha, however, is the last thing that the opposition needed. The fact that a heavyweight such as Mr. Cunha – who is seen as a corrupt man – is leading the attempts brings instant discredit to the whole process, making it look like a dirty coup attempt.

The most prudent representatives from the opposition parties have already understood that an impeachment process could only succeed if it looked as clear as water. And it won’t look like that, given the strong reaction from many jurists who are questioning the legality of the process, and also due to the brave political resistance by the pro-government lawmakers in Congress.

Brazil’s Central Bank weekly bulletin called Focus (a survey with analysis of the private sector of the country’s economy) has been published today. Although it brings some bad economic news, it is giving some signs of light at the end of the tunnel. Unsurprisingly the media only explored the bad side of the bulletin.

ScreenHunter_98 Oct. 13 13.23

The financial markets estimate a yearly inflation rate of 9.7% in 2015 – a similar number to their previous calculations. But when it comes to 2016 – and this is important – the market is still estimating below-target inflation rates, something around 6.0%

The numbers estimated for Brazil’s exchange rates at the end of 2015 were stable at 4 reais. The fact that it hasn’t varied after one week shows stability. Next year’s prognostics also don’t indicate any kind of tragedy in the exchange rates: 4,15 reais per dollar. Nevertheless, this is one the weakest estimations, as the exchange rates depend on an endless amount of variables.

Now let’s have a look at some positive data that the media pretends not to see.

The market has significantly raised its expectations on Brazil’s current account. While four weeks ago the private representatives predicted a deficit of US$73.5 billion, today their estimation fell to US$65.5 billion.

The current year’s trade balance surplus estimations indicated US$10 billion a month ago, and now they have gone up to US$13 billion.

For the year of 2016 the market has estimated that this surplus will almost double to a total of US$25 billion. The previous analysis predicted a bit less, US$20 billion.

This year’s foreign direct investment should amount toUS$61.5 billion, and in 2016 to US$60 billion. These estimations are responsible to keep Brazil on the top of the list of countries that receive the most productive foreign investments in the world.

Considering that Brazil is one the countries that most invest in infrastructure – such as hydroelectric power plants, ports, railways, electrical systems, wind power, oil refineries and oil production – the picture of our country’s situation is not as bad as our antipatriotic media paints.

The government has won a battle against the impeachment attempts at the start of this week. Winning at the Supreme Court helped the government gain a better public image, as the opposition’s plans have now been doomed due to Mr. Cunha being so closely associated with it. His political reputation is way below its dead storage.

Notwithstanding, it is not just about bad reputation. Mr. Cunha can actually get arrested at any moment. And this delay on his arrest helps exposing how partisan our justice is. Were Cunha a member the Worker’s Party (PT) and he would have been arrested a long time ago, along with his wife. Or at least he would have suffered so much public humiliation that he would have already stepped down as Lower House president.

The “coupometre” is still indicating the same for the next following weeks. The possibility of a successful coup is getting weaker this week as the opposition faces the reality of the Congress’ regiment, which makes it really difficult for their coup inspired utopias to prosper. The “coupometre” might hit a higher mark at the weekend, due to the usual forged scandals, but it should stabilize again throughout the upcoming week.

The opposition’s ultimate weapon would be a coup through an unlikely ruling from the Superior Electoral Court. However, it could cause a very serious institutional rupture, so it doesn’t have many chances of happening. And even in case the TSE rules against the government, it wouldn’t be an unappealable decision, like many political analysts seem to believe.

The “coup-attempting season” should still last for a few more months, but its chances of succeeding will gradually weaken with time. Also, the main social-economic forces would show their aversion for an eventual coup against a government that was legally elected and reelected.


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Alex Procopio

15 de outubro de 2015 às 16h27

Esse Aébrio Neves… Quando Mai Se Investiga a vida deste Sujeito mais “Podres” Aparecem…


Bia Lucena

15 de outubro de 2015 às 16h09

Luciana Garbayo, Edvan Brito, Helinette Pigatti, Jonathan Lemay, Marcio Rocha, Andreia Alves, caso algum amigo queira saber como andam as coisas por aqui…


Dulce Cabral

15 de outubro de 2015 às 15h11

Parabéns Miguel. Gostei.


Washington Luis da Luz

15 de outubro de 2015 às 14h16


Eunice Sélos

15 de outubro de 2015 às 13h21

Mandem alguns dos melhores links pra podermos repassar ….


João Mendoza Gallego

15 de outubro de 2015 às 13h06

Marianne Mendoza, pra você mandar pro jornal sueco que tem o jornalistazinho reacionário do Rio.


Lucas Lula Dias

15 de outubro de 2015 às 12h57


Valdir Taveira

15 de outubro de 2015 às 12h34

É preciso ler em lingua estrangeira para ter noticias positivas?Pelo amor de Deus ne…



15 de outubro de 2015 às 08h54

Preferia em português…


Luiz Carlos

15 de outubro de 2015 às 11h47

Excelente análise! Principalmente em relação a crítica da nossa grande mídia – anti patriótica e pessimista segundo o texto – que reforça apenas o lado negativo.


Maquinel Campelo

15 de outubro de 2015 às 11h30

Ese cafezinho puxa u saco do PT.


Orlando Da Rocha Hill

15 de outubro de 2015 às 10h54

Na análise não nenhuma menção do movimento social. No Brasil, a política só acontece dentro do congresso?


    Vania Otero

    15 de outubro de 2015 às 11h04

    Não sei se só no Congresso, mas você captou bem, muita política de bastidores e pouquíssimas manifestações.


Vania Otero

15 de outubro de 2015 às 10h42

Orlando Da Rocha Hill


Haroldo H Da C Lima Lima

15 de outubro de 2015 às 10h33

Parece que o problema não são as pedaladas (ou outras desculpas que possam aparecer, pois da oposição só não se pode esperar o melhor para o povo), mas o fato de ela ser mulher e ter vencido um menino mimado…


Mauricio Gomes

15 de outubro de 2015 às 06h37

Entrando no espírito do post, um recado para os golpistas fascistóides inspirado nas palavras do Boechat: Go find a dick! kkkkk


Luis Miguel Gutierrez

15 de outubro de 2015 às 05h25

Giselle Miranda Ratton veja a análise conjuntural em inglês


Luis Miguel Gutierrez

15 de outubro de 2015 às 05h23

Giselle Miranda Ratton veja a análise da conjuntura atual em inglês


Eoin O'Neill

15 de outubro de 2015 às 03h33

Boa iniciativo. Contudo vc poderia mudar o titulo para ‘Daily Analysis of the Brazilian Political Scenario’ ou ‘Political Context’ invés de ‘conjuncture’ (que não é muito usado).


Olindina Freire

15 de outubro de 2015 às 03h32

Tem tradução ???


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